SOMETHING extraordinary just happened. Republicans had reason to
believe Barack Obama would be a one-term president after four years of
grim economic struggle. But these are not ordinary times. The US is
still feeling the effects of the recession that took hold after the
global financial crisis on the eve of Mr Obama's 2008 election. This
year's election was a referendum on the economy, as Republicans had
hoped, but it was also a choice between competing views of the role of
government. The Democratic vision won out.
Not since Franklin D. Roosevelt has an incumbent won with
unemployment above 7.2 per cent. After 43 months above 8 per cent, only
last month did the rate fall to 7.8 per cent, the same as when Mr Obama
took office. Yet the historical precedent suggests a context for the
voters' decision to give him the responsibility of finishing the job of
recovery, just as they did president Roosevelt in the Depression era 76
years ago. Then, as now, a majority of Americans supported a greater
role for government than Republican candidate Mitt Romney, running mate
Paul Ryan and their Tea Party backers would allow.
The results in key swing states suggest voters approved of
bailing out the vehicle industry (and, earlier, the banks). This was
crucial in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Mr Obama's hands-on response
to hurricane Sandy compared favourably to Republican president George
W. Bush's inept handling of Katrina. "Obamacare", the
government-mandated health insurance scheme to extend cover to millions,
was surprisingly well backed in exit polls.
Mr Romney opposed stimulus programs and bailouts, vowed to
scrap Obamacare and even suggested cutting the government's emergency
response capacity. Republican promises to preserve healthcare programs
for the elderly were unconvincing in light of their proposals during the
brinkmanship over the federal debt ceiling. Voters were well aware, as
Congress's pitifully low approval ratings show, of the legislative
dysfunction created by Republican obstructionism.
Having lost a contest that a more consistent and moderate candidate could have won — and, yes, Ronald Reagan would qualify — Republicans must take stock of their self-inflicted damage. That review will be painful, but not half as difficult as the task facing Mr Obama, who must go back to work minus much of the hope and energy of 2008. The recent revival of economic growth and confidence is fragile and faces an early test next month when the debt ceiling is reviewed. The debt has passed $US16 trillion, much of the growth still driven by Bush-era tax cuts and wars. Mr Romney's "deficit reduction plan" outlined tax cuts and higher defence spending without specifying savings.
Mr Obama must make the tough calls on savings and take on the almighty challenge of getting Congress to accept revenue-raising measures. No sensible budget policy can just ignore half of the revenue-and-spending equation. Europe's plight should spur the US to get its debt under control. The world needs Washington to act.
US voters have proved to be remarkably understanding of why they could not answer yes to the question Mr Reagan famously posed in his 1980 debate with one-term president Jimmy Carter: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Unlike the Reagan pitch of 1984, Mr Obama was not yet able to declare: "It's morning again in America." Winning re-election may even prove to have been easier than the challenges still to come.