Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Race heads to the finish line

Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and their running mates spent Tuesday in a last-minute dash for votes, with just hours left before the first set of polls begin to close on the East Coast at 7 p.m. and the 2012 presidential cycle begins its final act.
Voting ends first at 6 p.m. in some parts of Indiana, where the presidential race is not competitive but a close Senate race is in play. The first major poll closings in the presidential contest come an hour later, as voting ends in most parts of Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire.
The earliest the race might be called is likely 11 p.m., when polls close on the West Coast. By then, networks and newspapers may be able to project winners in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern battlegrounds that will tip the Electoral College to Obama or Romney.
(PHOTOS: Election Day 2012)
In the case of an extremely close outcome, a call could come much later than that. There were reports of high turnout across the country, with anecdotal indications of long lines at swing-state polling places.
Top Romney advisers told supporters that turnout is beating their models in a number of key battlegrounds in swing states, according to sources familiar with a Tuesday afternoon conference call.
Political Director Rich Beeson, senior adviser Ron Kaufman and others provided information on a handful of counties - in pivotal states -- some of it hard, some of it anecdotal -- according to a report on the call provided by two Republican sources.
Whether the vibes they're feeling are the harbinger of a wave or a ripple remains to be seen, but Romney's team is projecting confidence to its own inner circle of top supporters in the final hours of balloting.
Preliminary results of an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press showed, not surprisingly, that most voters were most concerned about economic issues. The survey of voters as they leave polling places Tuesday showed 6 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the nation, with unemployment and rising prices hitting voters hard.
About half of voters said former President George W. Bush gets more of the blame for economic challenges than Obama.
The two presidential candidates held events Monday evening that were billed as their final rallies for the campaign: for Obama, a speech in Des Moines, Iowa; for Romney, a rally in Manchester, N.H.
But Obama, Romney, Vice President Joe Biden and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan were all fully engaged with the race in its final hours Tuesday. The president recorded a series of swing-state TV and radio interviews and spent part of the afternoon playing basketball with friends and aides.
Romney visited Ohio with Ryan; the two also had separate events planned in Pennsylvania and Virginia.
(Also on POLITICO: 9 takeaways from the 2012 election)
Biden visited Ohio on the final day of the campaign, but it was in his home state of Delaware, where he voted early this morning, that the vice president made the first real political news of the day.
Asked by a pool reporter whether this is the last election in which he expects to cast a ballot for himself, Biden answered: "No, I don't think so" -- a possible nod to presidential ambitions down the line.
He joked at a later campaign stop in Cleveland: "I'm going to go back home and run for county council or something."
Biden's ebullience was matched on the other side. Visiting a campaign office with Ryan in Richmond Heights, Ohio, Romney said he was counting on the GOP turnout operation to elect him and bring about "the real change we really need in this country."
(See also: POLITICO's swing-state map)
"I'm so optimistic, not just about the results of the election, but optimistic about what's ahead for America. We have glorious, great days ahead and we're going to accomplish that together," Romney said.
As to his Election Day itinerary, Romney said he just couldn't sit still: "I can't imagine an election being won or lost by, let's say, a few hundred votes and you spent your day sitting around," he told WRVA radio in Richmond, Va.
Despite Romney's upbeat tone, national Republicans recognize that their nominee entered Election Day as something of an underdog. Romney trailed Obama in most swing-state polling heading into Tuesday, and the president held a lead in early voting in key states such as Ohio and Nevada.
The Electoral College map has long been challenging for Romney, as Obama starts out with more electoral votes in the bank. While Romney has sought to compete in Democratic-leaning battlegrounds like Michigan and Pennsylvania, members of his own party are skeptical that either could swing his way this late in the campaign.
In a Tuesday afternoon television appearance, former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour expressed optimism about Romney's prospects but emphasized the complexity of the electoral math at hand.
"Certainly Romney has to carry Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana, and I think he will carry all of those. But then you have to make up a few more votes that is not just one combination," Barbour, the former Republican National Committee and Republican Governors Association chairman, told NBC's Andrea Mitchell." "There are several combinations to make up those votes."
The White House is not the only prize on the ballot today: Republicans are seeking to take control of the U.S. Senate, where Democrats currently have a three-seat majority, while Democrats have aimed to regain the House of Representatives.
If the outcome of the presidential race is very much in doubt, there is far less uncertainty about the balance of power in Congress. Senior strategists in both parties acknowledge that the Senate and House are unlikely to change hands, and there may not even be a substantial shift in the number of seats each party controls.
The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of the presidential race showed Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent nationally -- dead-even result consistent with other national polling.
There were encouraging signs within the poll for both sides: Romney led Obama among independents by 15 percentage points, a margin that would likely give him the presidency if it held up in actual voting.
Among voters in the 10 most competitive general-election states, however, Obama had a 6-point lead over Romney, 49 percent to 43 percent.
The major news so far Tuesday may have been that Romney and Obama -- who have engaged in one of the most consistently negative general election campaigns in recent memory -- had kind words for each other.
Addressing his rival, Obama said, "I also want to say to Gov. Romney, 'Congratulations on a spirited campaign.' I know his supporters are just as engaged, just as enthusiastic and working just as hard today." Romney, in turn, congratulated the president for running a "strong campaign."
Jon Allen and Maggie Haberman contributed to this story.