Monday, March 18, 2013

2014 AFC Challenge Cup qualifiers - What are the Philippines’ chances?

The last time around, the Philippines made waves in the Asian Football Confederation, coming just a win shy of going the distance, to the 2012 Challenge Cup Finals. The Azkals went through the qualifying playoff round, the qualifying group stage, and then emerged from the group of death before falling 2-1 to Turkmenistan in the semifinals, though they did earn third place with a 4-3 victory over Palestine.

A year later, two-time champions North Korea have effectively graduated, with the AFC making the wise decision of finally saying that the ‘developed’ football nation shouldn’t compete in a tournament designed for ‘emerging’ countries, leaving the 2014 Challenge Cup up for grabs.

Two-time finalists Turkmenistan, 2010 winners Tajikistan, the Philippines and already-qualified Palestine are among the frontrunners to win the competition, but if the Azkals are to win a major trophy, they must first navigate qualification.

Here we take a look at the Philippines’ opponents in qualifying, as well as the new system of qualification:


Brunei
FIFA Ranking: 186
Form: W2 D0 L3
Last Match against Philippines: Brunei 1-1 Philippines (2008)

Brunei are perennial bottom-dwellers in South East Asia football, let alone the world. That said, the country has a history of punching above its weight, case in point, their latest two wins came in the Suzuki Cup qualifying, against Cambodia, 3-2, and Timor-Leste, 2-1, with narrow losses against Myanmar and Laos. 

With that said, changes in the qualifying format for the Challenge Cup make every game more important, if they weren't already. In the five groups, each leader will advance to the next round, with the best two runners-up also qualifying, with goal difference being the second criteria, after number of points obtained.

That changes how the Philippines should see Brunei - as a chance to score a lot of goals and boost that stat. Now the Azkals haven't played against Brunei since 2008, but both teams are entirely different now, with the Philippines looking far superior. Anything less than a win would be unacceptable.

Prediction: Philippines 5-0 Brunei


Cambodia
FIFA Ranking: 185
Form: W0 D0 L5
Last Match against Philippines: Cambodia 0-0 Philippines (2012)

[Related: Azkals settle for a draw in a frustrating night in Phnom Penh]

Cambodia has fallen apart recently. A terrible showing in the Suzuki Cup qualifiers left them at the bottom of the heap and they’ve dropped to 184 in the rankings. After their stubborn draw against the Azkals in September last year, they lost their next five games and come in hoping just to reassert they are a better side than Brunei.

The Philippines should be hoping for a much better showing against Cambodia. With goal difference all important, following up a good win against Brunei with another solid victory will put the team in a more comfortable position come the final group game against Turkmenistan. With Group B in progress and scheduled to be completed before the Philippines’ group, the Azkals know six points and a goal difference of more than India’s plus-five will guarantee they go through to the next round. The Philippines will have to be wary of veteran of 46 caps Teab Vathanak and top-scorer Khim Borey, who has ten goals in 24 appearances.

The Philippines should be much more concerned however, with asserting their own game and breaking down the Cambodian defense to rack up the goals here.

Prediction: Philippines 3-0 Cambodia


Turkmenistan
FIFA Ranking: 140
Form: W4 D0  L1
Last Match against Philippines: Turkmenistan 2-1 Philippines (2012)

[Related: Azkals suffer 2nd-half collapse against Turkmenistan]

The Turkmen are worlds above the other two Azkals’ opponents and are probably the best team in the competition. Having reached the Final in the last two editions of the competition, knocking out the Azkals in the semifinal last year, only North Korea have stopped them in the Challenge Cup – and now that country is not in it.

Having played friendlies against Laos and Vietnam at the end of 2012, winning both, they’re preparing for South East Asian competition. They’ve fallen 19 places in the FIFA rankings in the last month but simply, put that’s just the natural swing of the rankings at different times of the year, and they’re well worth a place higher up. They just haven’t played a game so far in 2013.

A mix of new recruits and veterans gives them a balanced team, with Berdimyrat ?amyradow leading the squad up front with nine goals in twenty appearances for the national side, including the goal which put them 1-0 up against North Korean in the 2012 final, though they went on to lose.

All but three of their players play in the domestic leagues, the other three still playing within the region, and so they should know each other well. Turkmenistan will be a difficult team to break down and this is the game all eyes will be on as whoever triumphs here may well inherit the top seed status for the final stage of the tournament. 

Prediction: Philippines 1-1 Turkmenistan


Philippines
FIFA Ranking: 145
Form: W3 D1 L1

[Related: Azkals rise two spots to 145 in FIFA Rankings]

The Philippines have risen two places in the FIFA rankings, just two more places behind their all-time high of 143. A good showing here and the Azkals will no doubt break that ceiling and reach their highest ranking again. Still third in South East Asia, the Philippines is looking to close the distance on Thailand and, surprisingly, Vietnam, which is still at the top of the region despite a lot of poor performances recently.

For this competition, the Philippines will have all their Europe-based players: Neil Etheridge, Roland Muller, Stephan Schrock, Paul Mulders, and Jerry Lucena to name a few. The debut of Javier Patino is also widely anticipated as he was based in the second-tier of Spanish football but recently signed for Thai Premier League club Buriram United. Rufo Sanchez, the UFL’s current top scorer, was even reported as saying that Patino was leagues above him. Patino could very well take the pressure off Phil Younghusband to grab the goals and given Younghusband’s current form and fitness, the 25-year-old may well take over the more established Younghusband as the squad's number one striker.

How quickly the team can adapt to each other though, will be crucial, as the Philippines needs to score a lot to ensure qualification. With potentially a starting eleven coming from abroad to reinforce the Azkals’ line-up, they have the most of any of their opponents coming in at short notice.


Azkals out for revenge against the Turkmen

The Philippines also have a score to settle with Turkmenistan, which turned around a 1-0 Philippine lead in the last ten minutes of the Challenge Cup semis in 2012. Coach Michael Weiss has often been conservative in the past and may well look to play for the draw, assuming Philippine wins against Cambodia and Brunei, to guarantee the Azkals make it through and not run the risk of elimination this early.

Playing at home will be a good advantage for the Azkals, who sported a record of twelve wins, six draws, and six losses in 2012. Winning exactly half their games, the Philippines will be looking to build on a fantastic 2012 after a rather fortunate victory against Myanmar last month.

Unbeaten so far in 2013, Turkmenistan will be their biggest threat to that record and to Challenge Cup Qualification. The games will be played on March 22, 24, and 26, at the Rizal Memorial Stadium, with the Philippines having a very realistic chance of qualification. - AMD, GMA News