South China Sea tensions over fishing, resources heighten war threat

Tensions in the South China Sea between China and its neighbours have become so charged that open conflict in the region is an increasingly likely prospect, a new report says.

China, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries are battling one another for fishing stocks, and oil and gas deposits. The disputes come as the countries grapple with growing nationalism at home, which makes it difficult for leaders to back away from conflicts after they materialize, the International Crisis Group (ICG) says in its report.

“The risk of escalation is high, and … pressure in the region threatens to boil over,” says the report, “Stirring Up the South China Sea: Regional Responses.”

“All of the trends are in the wrong direction, and prospects of resolution are diminishing.

“The regional buildup of arms increases the likelihood of unintentional escalation, and the aggressive use of law enforcement vessels to assert claims leads to more frequent contact with civilian vessels and other coast guards.”

China claims virtually the entire 3.5 million-square-kilometre South China Sea, while the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam also claim parts of the sea, which is also considered a vital transport route.

Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, a former United Nations official in China who wrote the ICG report, said in an interview that the South China Sea has become a simmering powder keg.

“There are very worrying signs,” she said. “Countries are aggressively enforcing their claims and there is no code of conflict in the region to peacefully settle these disputes.”

In recent months, China and the Philippines faced off over an uninhabited group of islands known as Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine Navy in April discovered coral, giant clams and live sharks on a Chinese boat and the Philippines announced the Chinese fishermen would be arrested for poaching.

The showdown lasted for more than two months before the Philippines ordered its two ships to withdraw.

“There are a series of tit for tats in the region and one never knows how far it’s going to go,” Kleine-Ahlbrandt said. “With the Scarborough Shoal dispute, the Philippines upped the ante by sending ships and China threw the book at them.”

The ICG report’s release comes as local media report China has inaugurated Sansha, a city on the disputed Paracel Islands which was elevated in political status to bolster China’s claims to the island chain.

It’s often reported that most disputes in the region are over gas and oil deposits. The seabed in the South China Sea is believed to contain as much as 225 billion barrels worth of oil and natural gas.

But Kleine-Ahlbrandt said most conflicts in recent months have flared after fishing-related disputes.

Roughly 700 million people live near the South China Sea and depend on the rich fishing stocks for their livelihoods, as well as 80 per cent of their diets. Vietnam estimates its population of 87 million will surge by 25 per cent by 2050 and it will need additional food and fish.

“Vietnam and China are incentivizing to encourage fishermen to buy larger boats and go farther from shore into disputed waters,” she said. “The boats have sophisticated GPS devices so if there is a problem, if they bump into boats from other countries, they can call for help immediately.”